Security situation is but stable

• In the Eastern region, candidates are campaigning freely and voters feel safer than in 2008

• analysi UPADHYAY, Chetan Adhikari

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BIRATNAGAR, NOV 08 -

Even as rumours of security threats to the November 19 election swirl, the situation on the ground remains stable. Parties are campaigning briskly, poll-opposing parties lack the capacity to disrupt elections across the country, and the election environment has improved remarkably as compared to the 2008 polls.

Political party workers, analysts and voters we spoke to in the districts of Morang, Sunsari and Jhapa described the current election environment as free and the role of security forces as positive.   

Still, they would not rule out isolated security incidents that could lead to re-polling in some pockets. They, however, insisted that nationwide, this number would be far too small to have much bearing on the overall security perception of the public and, in extension, the election outcome—as it had happened in 2008.

Both the poll-supporting political parties and the state security apparatus, on the one hand, and the poll-opposing forces on the other will get to test their ground strength, starting November 11, when the CPN-Maoist- led 10-day banda kicks in.

If the evidence on the ground in the run-up to the election is any indication, the strength of the CPN-Maoist and the poll-opposing forces seems exaggerated. Political party leaders and security officials say that despite a surge in the reported security incidents in recent days, the candidates are campaigning freely and voters feel much safer than in the 2008 election, which saw a national turnout of about 60 percent.

For now, UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal seems to be the prime target of those opposed to the polls.

On Wednesday, six “bombs” were planted along the East-West Highway as Dahal began his nationwide ‘Mechi-Mahakali Abhiyan’ in the eastern border point of Kakarvitta in Jhapa and addressed nine public rallies in Jhapa, Sunsari and Morang. The final stop in the hectic day-long campaign was Biratnagar, the commercial and political hub of the Eastern region.

All the ‘improvised explosive devices’ turned out to be a hoax and they were primarily planted to create fear in the local population ahead of the 10-day banda, according to security officials, who said they were well prepared to deal with all kinds of security challenges— in the run-up to election day, on election day, and later In transporting the ballot boxes, which have been brought to the district headquarters where the ballots will be counted.

 The Army personnel are responsible in securing major highways, the lifeline for elections. These correspondents saw the Army on patrol along the Itahari-Damak section (47km) of the East-West Highway at 8pm on Wednesday. 

There is a strong security deployment along the East-West Highway and a number of major north-south link roads that feed into the highway. This helps secure the towns and settlements that are either right on the highway or are in its close proximity. This is where major election rallies are concentrated and election logistics need to be transported before election day.     

Nepal Army started reaching out to the civilian population as early as Baisakh (mid April) and visited every single VDC in the Eastern region to take stock of the security situation. The operation was also aimed at winning the hearts and minds of the local population. 

The operation was also aimed at winning the hearts and minds of the local population. 

“The increased security presence has made the voters a lot more confident on the eve of the polls,” said Akhileshwor Das, a teacher at Damak Multiple Campus in Damak, Jhapa. “I haven’t seen people terrorised by their presence.”

This is a marked improvement compared to 2008 when 60,000 security personnel— 40,000 from Nepal Police and 20,000 from the Armed Police Force— were deployed, while the Army was confined to the barracks in keeping with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which also mandated the Maoist soldiers to stay within their 28 designated cantonments.

Now, around 140,000 security personnel remain active on the ground— 45,000 Nepal Police, 29,000 Armed Police Force and 62,000 Army personnel. Additionally, some 45,000 temporary police have also been hired for the election.

Political party leaders and analysts say the 10-day banda could fizzle out within a few days, even if the 33-party alliance decides to go ahead with it. They cited how the general people defied the banda called on Teej (September 7) by the UCPN (Maoist). 

“The reach of the state has much improved since the 2008 elections,” said Biratnagar-based Bijaya Mishra, an analyst who keeps tab of Madhes issues. “Other political parties have gradually reclaimed the space once monopolised by the Maoists and Madhes parties.” 

In 2008, some of the biggest political stakeholders— NC and CPN-UML for example— were barred from campaigning freely in a number of the 240 constituencies. Five years on, hundreds of individual political leaders have invested so much political and financial capital in their campaigns that they seem prepared to accept isolated re-polling but seem dead-set against shelving the scheduled election on security grounds. Mishra said the biggest security cover for the polls is now provided by the political parties themselves who are campaigning freely across the country. “This is a game changer as far as the quality of election goes.”

Laxmi Niroula, district coordinator for INSEC in Jhapa, a human rights group, described the current election environment as “normal” and that human rights workers don’t see security as a national issue this election. The strong evidence of this changed political and security context is that members of the cross-party civil society groups that were active in election observation groups across the country in the last election are now actively involved with parties of their choice.

“With the security situation now returning to normal,” said Niroula, “most people have left human rights and election observation groups to concentrate on the election this time round. They reckon it’s time to move on and concentrate on buttressing their own parties.”  

In 2008, the police, local administration officials and the national army felt “defeated” by emerging political forces and their morale was generally poor. Political parties were maintaining “an artificial goodwill and civilities” towards each other and seemed less concerned about the election results and more concerned about taking the country out of the long dark civil war. Scores of police posts were overrun across the country. They have now been reinstated.

DIG Navaraj Silwal, head of the Eastern Regional Police Office, believes the threat perception seems exaggerated in the Centre. Silwal said criminalization of politics, extortions, open border with India, party goons, resource limitations at the disposal of the security forces were major challenges in poll security.

“Other than human security challenges, nature will also pose some risks,” he said, “because the elections are taking place in the winter, election preparations and polling in mountain districts— like Taplejung, Sankhuwasabha and Solukhumbu— could be hit by adverse weather conditions. “Still, the risks are far more exaggerated. We have a strong deployment of the Army, Armed Police Force, the Nepal Police and the temporary police,” he said.