Escalating tension leads to rising instability in North Korea

SEOUL, JUN 01 -  

Pyongyang has racked up tension on the Korean Peninsula to stabilise the regime through measures such as threats of launching an "all-out nuclear war" and withdrawing its workers from Kaesong Industrial Complex .

There have been signs that the solidarity of the regime has been shaken due to strife between the different social classes whose reaction to the wartime atmosphere differs vastly in accordance to their interests.

There is a sense of uneasiness among the cadre who are reasonably informed about the situation beyond the country's borders. They are keeping a close watch on how developments to the current situation will affect them.

Chinese businessmen trading with North Korea are reporting that the cadres are opposed to any further provocations as they predict the regime will collapse if faced with retaliation from the ROK and the US in response to attacks against the South.

Party officials, in-charge of managing foreign currency, are bent solely on securing their own interests. The officials are using the crackdown on free market as an excuse to accumulate foreign currency to use should they be forced to escape to China if war breaks out.

On the other hand, the general public, reeling from impoverishment, remains largely indifferent towards such potential scenarios. However, there have been frequent incidents in which the disgruntled public displayed their discontent towards the leading class.

North Korea traders have testified that the majority of North Koreans have given up all hope. They have gone so are as to say "I would rather that war occurred." These traders added that they "overheard young men saying 'if a war breaks out I hope I get a chance to kill those State Security Department pods.'"

The military, which is spearheading the rhetorical attacks and threats against the ROK, has grown fatigue from being on high alert for so long. This has lead to numerous accidents and incidents.  Residents living near the border have stated that since North Korea declared "number one combat readiness posture" the number of deserters has increased. The frustrated military commanders are finding it difficult to manage their troops. Society-wide distrust towards the military has grown as deserters have been caught stealing from civilians, frequently. The North Korean military is faced with a disciplinary crisis as an increasing number of commanders have been assaulted by their subordinates while their orders have been ignored.

In order to circumvent sanctions imposed after the regime's nuclear and missile provocations, it threatened to wage a war in March and shut down Kaesong Industrial Complex in April. However, the ROK government's stern response stirred up conflict within the North. Such moves by the regime were based on its misjudgement that the ROK government would surrender to its threats and provocations.

At the same time, North Korean cadres in the party and government are critical about the regime's withdrawal of the workers from Kaesong Industrial Complex , paying close attention to negative implications that it may bring about. A North Korean source, requesting anonymity, said, "Kim Jong-un's spontaneous decisions caused the shut-down of Kaesong Industrial Complexand it is a wide-held view among the party cadres that Kim Jong-il would never take such an imprudent step." The source also mentioned, "Before the decision was made, there was conflict between the party/government and military. The military nudged Kim Jong-un to do so, saying that proposals for talks by the US and the ROK demonstrated that their hard-line approach has been successful."

However, the source added, "As the real purpose of North Korea's hard-line approach was to gain the upper hand in renegotiations, North Korean elite circle has been surprised by the ROK government's unexpectedly tough response. And the cadres are worrying that they might not get kickbacks anymore."

According to the source, the regime has strived but failed to mitigate mounting criticism and discontent among the populace and Kaesong Industrial Complex workers.  Workers at Kaesong Industrial Complex are expressing strong discontent that "we lost our jobs because of the reckless behavior of the elite circle and our anger is boiling." In addition, criticism and discontent on the North Korean regime is increasing among its people that "Kim Jong-un, a naive young leader with reckless bravado, and the military spoiled the North Korean economy. And they will change only when the North is ruined and faced with severe problems."

Meanwhile, North Korea has mobilized the State Security Department to strengthen monitoring and investigation of workers at the Kaesong Industrial Complex and their families, which was of little avail and only increased resistance.